A Kiss-Off To Online Dating

BUSINESS WEEK -- Nov 20 -- The era of Web 1.0 is over, online dating is dead. Going on sites like Facebook or MySpace it's like going to a bar with your friends, whereas a dating site is like walking past a bunch of animals in cages at the zoo. According to comScore, the number of people visiting online dating sites dropped 6% in September. Unique visitors to Yahoo Personals and eHarmony fell 21%, Match.com had a 16% drop, and True.com's visitors plummeted 46%. ComScore does show some names like Plentyoffish.com growing, but these are new sites with far smaller user bases. I doubt PlentyofFish will ever get to the size or valuation of a Match.com.

The full article was originally published at BusinessWeek, but is no longer available.

Mark Brooks: Match had $89.1 million revenue in Q3. That's ~$360 million a year.  PlentyofFish is now making $10 million+ a year. I doubted Markus would ever get into the top 10 when I met him in 2004. I underestimated him. PlentyofFish is #2, Match #4 on the Hitwise USA rankings.  On Comscore USA rankings, Match is #2 and PlentyofFish is #8.  In the UK, Hitwise ranks PlentyofFish.com as the #2 dating site, and Match comes in at #5.  And PlentyofFish comes in at #1 in Canada according to Comscore, with Lavalife at #2 and Match at #13. See the full rankings here. (Disclosure: PlentyofFish is a client of Courtland Brooks)

Comments

[Fernando Ardenghi]

"Online dating as you know it is dead. The brand of matchmaking sites that blossomed in 1990s is as good as gone"

Great and Good News!!!!

My bet:

* Age segmentation will trigger the "fun" social_networking market to merge with the fun_online_dating market, mainly for 13-25 years old persons (teenagers). Many sites are only cheap channels for deliver ads, i.e. infomercial-advertainment companies on the web!

* the "quality" social_networking market will overlap with the quality_online_dating market: mainly for 26-and more years old persons. Clients will pay for quality contacts (compatible real persons) and to avoid being hurt in their feelings by other persons. They know the difference between real friends from casual acquaintances.

I think Legislation and ISO 9001:2000 certification for the quality_online_dating market could lead to reach the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) concept for Online Dating Sites.
i.e. the probability of being scammed, raped, murdered, stalked, etc. using a specific Online Dating Site needs to be as low as comparing to the probability of being scammed, raped, murdered, stalked, etc. using real/traditional places like parks, schools, bars, libraries, discos, etc. for dating purposes.

Also new Online Dating Sites should offer:
* the 16PF5 NORMATIVE test as main personality test (available in different languages)
* more powerful matching math equations (not more regression equations!!!!)
specifying:
- Ensemble: the whole set of different valid possibilities.
- Precision: like 0.00000001%
- Main Matching Equation: like an adapted quantum mechanic equation.
- How the compatibility predictor is expresed: like Client#X to Client#Y == 92.55033557%
- Average number of "compatible real persons" for one person over the entire database: like the 3 most compatible in 100,000 persons database or the 12 most compatible in 1,000,000.

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PlentyOfFish is only a cheap channel to deliver ads, a parasite of Google.
It will never be a serious online dating site. Why?

Here an example of a BIG MISTAKE that a serious online dating site will never make:

When did PlentyOfFish change the name of its
"PlentyOfFish Compatibility Predictor"
http://img136.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pofbeforeoi1.jpg May 18, 2007
PlentyofFish has enlisted the help of the world's foremost team of academic psychologists who specialize in *Compatibility* Testing to develop the Plenty of Fish Compatibility Predictor (POFCP)

TO

"PlentyOfFish Relationship Chemistry Predictor"?
http://img136.imageshack.us/my.php?image=pofafterte9.jpg Nov 21, 2007
PlentyofFish has enlisted the help of the world's foremost team of academic psychologists who specialize in *Chemistry* Testing to develop the Plenty of Fish Relationship Chemistry Predictor (POFCP)

And who is the brain behind that PlentyOfFish compatibility matching method ?

Kindest Regards,

Fernando Ardenghi.
Buenos Aires.
Argentina.
[email protected]

[Glenn G. Millar]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Sounds like Biz Week was having a slow news day. Yes, the stats definitely show a slowdown in the industry, but predicting online dating's demise is a bit premature.

Every year studies show that meeting Mr. or Mrs. Right becomes more and more difficult. And every year there are new ways to meet people. Still online dating is the fastest way to identify eligible and willing potential partners.

Social networks enable one to make many friends, but separating the interested singles from the non-eligible ones is difficult. Online dating is relatively quick, easily identifies thousands of eligible people and eliminates a lot of wasted time.

Online dating didn't put bars out of business anymore than Social Networking will put online dating out of business. What we are more likely to see is ongoing improvements: Online speed dating, a combination of an offline idea and an online implementation; or social network dating where a site is dedicated to singles, but has many of the attributes of social networking.

The online dating industry, like all industries reaching maturity, will settle in and we may see some services fold and others merge, but there will always be room for the service.

(Disclosure – 20 months ago I met my now fiancée on an online dating site and found it the easiest method to meet women having tried pretty much every method known to man for the previous 11 years.)

[James Houran]

I disagree with the suggestion that POF will never be a serious dating site. In fact, I believe it compares extremely well with any "serious" dating site one could name. Markus has been able to do something remarkable that has yet to be fully duplicated from my perspective -- he's created an online dating community that acts like a community.

Unlike Match and other sites that tried unsuccessfully to implement offline parties/get-togethers, POF members actually organize themselves for offline contact. It is rather impressive. Plus, in my opinion, Markus only introduces funcitonality that makes business sense. He has the standard fare when it comes to online dating tools (IM, chatrooms, etc.), but he now has a suite of tests that facilitates social interaction on both casual and serious levels. The feedback is unlike other companies, in that it combines date/relationship coaching with general feedback. And Markus does all of this without charging his memberbase.

POF is not the "prettiest" of the online dating sites, but then again he must be doing something right. His formula of giving people only what they want in functionality combined with the empowerment to establish a sense of community sets POF apart as a very serious online dating site in my view.

Thx,

James Houran, Ph.D.
Online Dating Magazine

[insider]

The writer mentions that browsing profiles is free at POF, as if that is a distinguishing feature. Can anybody show me an online dating site where browsing profiles is not free?

I don't think the author knows what she is talking about at all, because she does not understand online dating and social networking.

[James Houran]

I assume the post above is supposed to refer to my comments. Actually, no where do I state that "browsing profiles is free at POF" or that this is "a distinguishing deature."

POF memberships are free -- which is noteworthy -- since POF offers much of the same features and benefits as paid dating sites (even better testing tools).

"Insider," it is important to carefully read a post before responding to it.

Thx,

James Houran, Ph.D.
Online Dating Magazine

[Markus]

insider was quoting directly from the article.

A serious dating site is the one with the most market share, its as simple as that. Any site can claim to be anything, but when it comes down to it all that matters is how many people actually use it.

[James Houran]

My apologies to Insider if that was the intended reference, but it was not clear from the post.

I agree with the idea that site usage is the litmus test. We have site rankings galore, but site activity is the important variable. That ties in with my comment that sites that aim to build a sense of community will be the winners. Not many do, from my view.

Thx,

James Houran, Ph.D.
Online Dating Magazine

[Bill Broadbent]

Starting fights again Doc? ;)

[Dr.Andrew Ntanda]

There is the ongoing debate that social networking sites would lead to the demise of online dating sites.I feel although they are a threats they have inherent different philosophies,one is essential social networking and the other is for dating.I would be less comfortable dating a friend off myspace or facebook and would prefer to meet a total stranger instead.I feel sites like facebook and myspace are too open and it makes it difficult for people to compartmentalise some aspects of their life.
There was talk recently on the BBC of employers looking at some future employees info on these sites and the programme was telling people to be careful what they publish on these sites.
I think the jury is still out on this one.
COI: new website developer www.interracialsinglesuk.com(still under construction)

[James Houran]

Hi Bill!

Me, starting fights?! (insert halo here)

:) Jim

[Ross Williams]

As an industry do we rate sites by the revenue their business generates or their traffic?

By disclosed revenue, I think PoF is doing very well for a one-man operation. But whilst the revenue predictions for 2008 are impressive for a one-man company, they're nothing to shout about compared to other dating sites. We're already turning over more than US$10million/year with only a fraction of PoF's traffic (although we do have the weakness of the dollar to thank in part for that!!) :o)

Just to cover our butts though - we'll be launching a new white label social networking platform next year ;o)

Ross

[Nicholas James]

I think we have to give credit to POF but not just them. As Ross mentioned POF is not the only dating site that is raking in the cash. Other free dating sites that are obviously up and coming are http://www.flirtbox.ca , http://www.freedateclub.com and in Canada http://www.singlescanada.com, it's obvious what POF has is its age and we all know with google age is everything if not a lot. Check out pof's rankings on yahoo and see what I mean.