A Contradiction In Contexts :: Why Dating Is Deadly For Facebook

OPW - May 2 - Yesterday I sent out a request to IDEA members to comment about the news that Facebook is getting into Internet dating. Before I go through the responses and permanently bias my opinion, I thought I'd reflect on some key points first.

Facebook has captured the market for social networking. They just own it at this stage. But dating is different. Here's why. **Context matters**

CONTEXT MATTERS - Recently I studied under Professor Paul Dolan at London School of Economics for their MSc Behavioral Science. The one thing we heard from Paul over and over again, to the point that it became amusing, was that 'context matters.' Meaning, the way behavior works is extremely context sensitive. The rules may apply in one context, but than a perfectly good experiment and observation may fail in another context.

Facebook = place to stay in touch with friends = non-private
Dating App = place to meet new love interests = private

When people go on a social network they are there to communicate with people they already know. The dating context is the antithesis. When people go to their favorite dating app, they're seeking a private place to find someone new to meet. These contexts are at odds with each other. I don't see how Facebook will be able to overcome this in the minds of users.

I had a stint at Friendster in 2003, which was a precursor to Facebook (see thumbnail). The CEO Jonathan Abrams thought dating was cheesy. After his girlfriend dumped him, he decided to create a service that would do a better job than dating sites, and presumably, not be cheesy. He wanted to link people up online, but his model and site floundered in the end, and MySpace and then Facebook took market dominating positions. Key to them taking their dominant positions was that their context was more clear (and their sites actually worked). MySpace ended up losing to Facebook because their context was less clear, and people were allowed to create fakester accounts and link with non-friends on Myspace. It was the wild west, and a popularity contest. Facebook came in and encouraged people to think about who they were linking with. Consequently, the network was built on real friendships, and the context was and is beautifully clear.

Social networking was born with dating in mind. But noone's ever successfully pulled the trigger to really combine dating and social networking, because they are two entirely separate use-cases and contexts. I got recruited into FriendFinder in 2003 when the CEO insisted on turning half of FriendFinder into a social network. It didn't work. Social networking was deadly to dating.

Now, it seems, Facebook is going to experiment with dating, and I think this is dangerous for maintaining their clear social networking context. Dating is deadly to social networking.

MEETUP SINGLES EVENTS VOID - Where Facebook definitely wins out, is events. There's a significant void in the market for dating events since Meetup banned singles events and groups in 2016. That will certainly help them win favor and attention from singles. But to what ends? They will just erode their social networking context.

MATCH WINS, SO FAR - Match Group is the clear winner in the Internet dating game, at this stage. They've routed the industry with the combined force of Tinder, POF and Match. Match Group have the most to lose with the introduction of free dating on Facebook. But, I think the real losers will be all the small startups that will have an even harder time raising money and getting to critical mass. eHarmony, meanwhile, should be just fine.

EHARMONY IS LESS HARMED - Steve Carter was at eHarmony from its beginning, from 1999-2017. He was their Chief Scientist, the man behind their algorithm, basically. But he left eHarmony in July 2017 to join Facebook. For the last 10 months he's been at Facebook to help them "get even better at making meaningful and beneficial connections between people." See https://www.linkedin.com/in/docscarter/.

This is probably fine by eHarmony. They have a distinct offering in the dating market. It's the service that requires more of their users, and in theory, delivers more. eHarmony is positioned as a matchmaker, in a sea of dating apps. They're more thoughtful, take a bit more time, and take a bit more money from users who are more committed. I think Facebook dating directly competes with Match Group offerings, but eHarmony has a more resilient brand against Facebook's lite dating app. Perhaps its time for Match Group to take another look at eHarmony. After all, it's ok to look. (hint: before Facebook does!)

PERFECT MODEL, PROBABLY NOT REALIZABLE FOR FACEBOOK - I think the perfect theoretical model for the perfect Internet dating service is, one app with all the singles on the planet on it, with really great introductions algorithms, based on observed behavior. People often lie about what they want, and who they are, but by observing behavior, and preferences in-the-moment they can form a more accurate picture of true character. Having a window into user behavior is key for dating. Facebook has this window, but can't use it. It would be just too creepy for a lot of people. Facebook is just not the company that would be trusted to do this. Facebook might well do an end-run around Tinder, but I don't think they'll be able to deliver on the perfect theoretical Internet dating model because they will not be trusted to get enough access to observable behavior. (2nd hint: but eHarmony might!)

So in short, I don't think Facebook can deliver on dating, and by entwining the dating context into their social networking context, they risk confusing and alienating users. Tinder will suffer, and eHarmony won't. We'll all need to innovate faster and be more creative about marketing. Humdrum just won't work any more.

Feel free to blast any of these ideas with your constructive feedback. :-) What's your thoughts?

See all posts on Facebook Dating

Post by Mark Brooks, CEO IDEA

Comments

[Maria A. P.]

This is a great post, Mark, and it is mirroring how I have felt since hearing the news. Dating is such a private thing and Facebook's established intent is in juxtaposition with what is being proposed.

As a professional matchmaker, I'm curious if this will drive personal matchmakers even more business. When Tinder came out, we saw an influx of users opting for pricey matchmakers because there is a segment of the population that could not participate in modern dating trends like online dating and app dating.

If people threatened to delete their FB profile after the Cambridge Analytica debacle, I cannot imagine this going smoothly as it rolls out. Perhaps I am wrong. The kind of persona someone builds to be more marketable in online dating (and therefore get more likes, winks, and dates) is not the same person on Facebook, and rightfully so. I imagine privacy being the biggest concern when it comes to Facebook dating. Very curious to see how they'll navigate the complexity of a user's attachment style as it pertains to social media versus online dating.

As app dating has become the norm and over-saturation of dating apps have plagued the modern day single, more online dating companies become niche specific, usually revolving around lifestyle. Look at the successes of The League or Inner Circle and how they are curating an experience for educated and high net worth singles. Will Facebook have sub cultures within the dating app to respond to these demands from experienced online daters?

....let's see what happens, I suppose. I'll also begin to make note on my end how many people tell me in my office that they decided to google matchmaking after they heard the news about Facebook.

[Guide-rencontre.fr]

Hi,

A few observations :

- Your comparaisons are interesting. But if I am not wrong the FB dating service will be free and this is a huge breaking point on dating market.
- FB has a huge set of datas and many ways to match peaople interests. I am sure that they will give pertinent match suggestions.
- In their demo, they talk about groups. I am sure that you will find many niched groups very quick.

PS : excuse my english if I made mistakes and please correct them for me :D

[Mark Brooks]

Thanks Maria. I'll add this to a white paper with the industry executive commentary and response. The paper comes out later today.

[Glenn "Croc" Millar]

Though you make very good points, no one ever got rich betting against Mark Zuckerberg. This was clearly not an overnight decision, nor one of desperation. They have obviously been planning this for a very long time. I think they are a serious force to be reckoned with.

[Tarvastu]

This is extremely interesting. Probably just the right move for FB to make at this point as I find it clear that the platform was in need of something more value bringing, in order for people to spend more time there.

I am certain that this will be successful and the main reason is that they are separating the dating profile from your normal one. To match with people before you go to let's say a concert is quite brilliant. I also think matching with people within groups has a huge potential and will become very popular.

What implications will this have on the competition then? It will be massive and a game changer in the business, but it is difficult to foresee exactly what kind of gamechanger it will be.

The first thing we can adress here is that FB Dating will be free. This means the free services are the one that is going to be hit the hardest. The ones that will make it the best are the premium services, which adresses customers that have no problems at all paying some money for a good dating service. Others that also will be fine are niched services (whether it's age, ethnicity, interests etc).

Tinder on the other hand is generic and is probably the service that faces the most danger. People are likely to still use it, but the problem for Match Group is that ads only makes up for around 10 percent of it's revenue. And with FB offering a convenient service that, to be honest, is likely to have include everything included in Tinder, I doubt people are going to be as willing to pay for Tinder.

This raises a couple of questions regarding Tinder's business model. Can they raise the share of income they get from ads without worsening the user experience, what would that look like? Should they divide it so that paying users can only match with other paying users (and freebies with other freebies)? Perhaps even create a seperate app, Tinder+ (?), for those who pay?

Match Group will be affected greatly from this and Tinder might not be the go to place many of us have gotten used to it beeing by now. The uncertainty how they are going to encounter this move by FB is too big for owning shares of Match Group at this stage in my opinion. Match Group will probably present a good report next week and they will do what they can to calm investors during the conference call. But I am frankly surprised by the arrogance shown by representatives within the organisation, when commenting on Facebook Dating (US/Russia relations, the water is warm etc.).

This was my take on the situation. I am open for discussion and you have to remember my the thesis is based on the scenario that FB Dating will be successful, but I just know it will be (and quite rapidly too).